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OK0NAG > SOLAR    31.01.11 23:02l 222 Lines 7227 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Jan 31 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z

to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past

24 hours. Region 1150 (S20E24) showed no significant changes and

remains a D-type group with a beta magnetic classification.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low with a chance for C-class events for the next three days (01-03

February).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the

past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (01 February). Quiet to

unsettled levels with a chance for active periods is expected on

days 2 and 3 (02-03 February), as a recurrent coronal hole

high-speed stream becomes geoeffective.

III.  Event Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           31 Jan 081

Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb  082/082/082

90 Day Mean        31 Jan 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  002/001

Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan  005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  005/005-008/008-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/15/30

Minor storm           01/05/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/05

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/20/35

Minor storm           01/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/05



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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