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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Thu, 3 Apr 2008 22:02:04 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Apr 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Spotless plage Region 989
(S11W41) produced two low-level C-class flares early in the period.
No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class flare
from plage Region 989.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (04 April) with
active periods at high latitudes as a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream becomes geoeffective. Activity is expected to
increase to active levels on days 2 - 3 (05 - 06 April) with minor
to major storm periods at high latitudes as the high-speed stream
continues.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 076
Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 075/070/070
90 Day Mean 03 Apr 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 007/010-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/40/30
Minor storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/50/50
Minor storm 05/25/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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