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OK0NAG > SOLAR    29.12.10 12:23l 244 Lines 7478 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 28 Dec 2010 22:02:19 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Dec 28 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z

to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1138 (N13W26)

developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration during the period, but

the region remained quiet.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

predominately very low levels for the next three days (29 - 31

December). A slight chance for C-class activity exists from Region

1138.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels during

the period. At approximately 28/0930Z, effects from the 23 December

CME impacted Earth's magnetic field. Observations from the ACE

spacecraft indicated a sharp decrease in the Bz component of the IMF

(-13nT at 28/1401Z) while the Bt component reached a maximum value

of 14nT at 28/1315Z. The field responded with an isolated minor

storm period from 28/1200 - 1500Z at all latitudes. Thereafter,

storm conditions diminished to unsettled to active levels through

the end of the summary period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one of the

forecast period (29 December) and mostly quiet for days two and

three (30 - 31 December).

III.  Event Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           28 Dec 081

Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec  082/084/084

90 Day Mean        28 Dec 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  001/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec  009/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/05/05

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/10/10

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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