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OK0NAG > SOLAR 12.10.10 23:05l 220 Lines 6660 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 12 Oct 2010 22:04:47 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. No flares
were detected. Region 1112 (S19E26) was quiet and stable. No new
regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (13 - 15 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field decreased to quiet to unsettled levels as it
recovered from yesterday's CME-driven disturbance. ACE solar wind
measurements indicated velocities were variable and ranged from 364
to 453 km/s. IMF Bz was weakly southward during most of the period
(maximum deflection -7 nT at 12/0037Z) while IMF Bt gradually
decreased from 7 nT to 5 nT as the period progressed.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (13 - 15
October).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 075
Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 076/076/076
90 Day Mean 12 Oct 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 010/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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