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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.10.10 08:28l 101 Lines 3607 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Monthly Ri Report
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Date: Fri, 1 Oct 2010 07:27:32 GMT
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
September 2010 : 25.2 (twenty-five point two)
Maximum : 40 on 2, 4 // Minimum : 0 on 8, 9
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for September 2010 :
1.. 21 6.. 20 11.. 8 16.. 30 21.. 26 26.. 34
2.. 40 7.. 10 12.. 9 17.. 37 22.. 25 27.. 39
3.. 34 8.. 0 13.. 18 18.. 35 23.. 27 28.. 38
4.. 40 9.. 0 14.. 19 19.. 34 24.. 27 29.. 38
5.. 30 10.. 11 15.. 19 20.. 27 25.. 27 30.. 33
68 cooperating stations on October 1, 07 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for March 2010 : 12.3 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2010 Apr 14 15 2010 Oct 21 44 2011 Apr 35 68
May 15 19 Nov 23 49 May 38 71
Jun 14 23 Dec 25 53 Jun 41 73
Jul 16 28 2011 Jan 28 57 Jul 44 75
Aug 17 33 Feb 30 62 Aug 47 79
Sep 19 39 Mar 33 65 Sep 50 82
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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