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OK0NAG > SOLAR 13.03.08 23:30l 73 Lines 2949 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Thu, 13 Mar 2008 22:02:06 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. An emerging flux region was
observed at N10E03.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels under the
continued influence of a high speed stream. Solar wind speed
measured at the ACE satellite ranged from 685 km/s near 2300Z to 569
km/s near 1700Z. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous
orbit remained at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on day 1 (14 March), quiet on day 2
(15 March) in response to a slackening solar wind. A return to
unsettled levels is anticipated on day 3 (16 March) with the
possibility of active periods at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 070
Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 13 Mar 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 008/008-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/30
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/10/40
Minor storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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