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OK0NAG > SOLAR 12.03.08 00:30l 75 Lines 3015 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Tue, 11 Mar 2008 22:02:14 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Mar 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 985 (S10W96)
produced a B5/Sf flare at 11/0550Z. Region 985 has since rotated off
the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to the
influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
at the ACE spacecraft was elevated to approximately 640 km/s at
forecast issue time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active, with isolated minor storm conditions
at high latitudes on day one (12 March). The elevated activity is
due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Days two and three (13-14
March) are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 070
Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 11 Mar 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 010/015-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor storm 10/20/10
Major-severe storm 10/10/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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