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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Mon, 10 Mar 2008 22:02:14 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Mar 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 985 (S10W83) was
numbered today. It is currently a BXO group with an area of 90
millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to the
influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
at the ACE spacecraft is elevated to approximately 700 km/s at
forecast issue time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels with isolated minor
storm periods possible for days one and two (11-12 March). Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on day three (13 March) as the
effects of the coronal hole high speed stream wane.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 070
Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 10 Mar 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 014/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 010/010-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/40/30
Minor storm 20/10/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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