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OK0NAG > SOLAR 30.05.10 18:43l 231 Lines 6966 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 28 May 2010 22:01:41 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 1072 (S15W79)
produced a B1 x-ray event at 27/2315Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. An interplanetary
shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 28/0203Z. Boulder
magnetometer observed a 33 nT sudden impulse at 28/0259Z, the
activity is most likely due to the arrival of the CME observed on
May 23.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately unsettled levels with a chance for
active periods on day one (29 May) as the CMEs from 23-24 May
continue to be geo-effective. Unsettled to active levels are likely
are on days two and three (30-31 May) due to the arrival of a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. In addition, there is a
slight chance for isolated minor storm periods during the high speed
stream interval.
III. Event Probabilities 29 May-31 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 May 073
Predicted 29 May-31 May 073/073/072
90 Day Mean 28 May 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May 001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 018/020-020/025-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/55/30
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 45/50/35
Minor storm 20/25/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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