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OK0NAG > SOLAR 18.04.10 00:06l 224 Lines 6881 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 17 Apr 2010 22:01:14 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Apr 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk
remained spotless. A long duration B2.1 X-ray event was observed at
17/0557Z. The possible source region of this event was from an area
of surging on the east limb near N25 as observed in GOES-14 SXI
imagery.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at predominately very low levels. A slight chance for C-class
activity exists as the new area of interest on the NE limb rotates
onto the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 April)
due to a geoeffective coronal hole wind stream and possible glancing
effects from the 13 April CME. Mostly quiet levels are expected to
return on days two and three (19 - 20 April).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Apr 074
Predicted 18 Apr-20 Apr 078/079/080
90 Day Mean 17 Apr 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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