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OK0NAG > SOLAR 17.03.10 23:04l 241 Lines 7445 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 17 Mar 2010 22:03:21 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1054 (N15W37) was in a gradual decay phase with
decreased spot count and area. Region 1056 (N17E46) was numbered
today and is magnetically classified as a Beta.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares for the next
three days (18-20 March).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes for the
past 24 hours. There was an isolated active period at high latitudes
between 0300Z - 0600Z. Solar wind observations from the ACE
spacecraft showed elevated velocities around 520 km/s and densities
around (1-3 p/cc). These signatures are consistent with a coronal
hole high-speed stream, presumably from the northward extension of
the southern polar coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (18 March)
due to the arrival of a partial-halo CME observed on 13 March.
Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on days two
and three (19-20 March).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 087
Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 087/087/088
90 Day Mean 17 Mar 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/05
Minor storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/10/05
Minor storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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