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OK0NAG > SOLAR 16.03.10 23:09l 233 Lines 7164 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 16 Mar 2010 22:04:20 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1054 (N14W25) was in a gradual decay phase with
decreased spot count and area as well as a decrease in magnetic
complexity. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels for the next three days (17-19 March) with a chance
for an isolated C-class flare from Region 1054.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed a minor
increase is speed values ranging from 350-440 km/s indicating the
arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days
(17-18 March) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream on day one and
the arrival of partial halo CME arriving on day two. Geomagnetic
activity levels are expected to return to quiet levels on day three
(19 March).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 085
Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 084/084/084
90 Day Mean 16 Mar 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 007/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/10
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/30/10
Minor storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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