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OK0NAG > SOLAR 14.03.10 23:14l 235 Lines 7254 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 14 Mar 2010 22:02:05 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Mar 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1054 (N14E01) produced two C-class flares. The C-class
event at 13/2349Z was a long duration C1.5 SF flare associated with
a partial halo CME and a sympathetic disappearing filament. Region
1054 has shown little growth and still magnetically classified as a
Beta-Gamma. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (15-17 March).
C-flares are likely from Region 1054.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days
(15-16 March) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream and
a solar sector boundary crossing. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to decrease to quiet levels on day three (17 March).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 089
Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 089/090/091
90 Day Mean 14 Mar 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 007/007-007/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/10
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/10
Minor storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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