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OK0NAG > SOLAR 15.02.10 00:06l 225 Lines 6852 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 14 Feb 2010 22:03:51 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1048 (N20E64) produced a
C4 flare at 14/1204Z. Region 1046 (N24W23) produced an isolated
B-class flare. Region 1046 was in a gradual decay phase with
decreased spot count and area as well as a decrease in magnetic
complexity. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class flares are likely. There is also a chance for
an isolated M-class flare from Regions 1046 and 1048.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels during the period (15 -
17 February) with a chance for minor storm levels. A CME is expected
to impact the field on 15 February. A recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream is expected to disturb the field during 16 - 17
February.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 089
Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 086/084/084
90 Day Mean 14 Feb 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 003/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 012/012-018/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/35
Minor storm 10/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 45/45/45
Minor storm 15/25/15
Major-severe storm 10/15/10
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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