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OK0NAG > SOLAR 13.02.10 23:32l 241 Lines 7401 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 13 Feb 2010 22:27:10 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 13 2222 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
::::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::::
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 1045 (N24W69) and 1046
(N23W11) were stable during the period producing only low level
C-class events. Both regions maintained Beta-Gamma magnetic
classifications. New Region 1048 (N23E90) was numbered during the
period after producing two C-class flares, the largest a C9.6 event
at 13/1239Z, observed on SXI from around the east limb. No spots
have been reported yet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a chance for high activity on days 1-3 (14-16
February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a single period of
unsettled conditions from 13/15-18Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for day 1 (14 February). Unsettled to active
conditions with a chance for isolated minor storming is expected on
day 2 (15 February) with an increased chance for minor storming on
day 3 (16 February). Activity is associated with the midday, day 2
arrival of the 13 February CME, and a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 094
Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 13 Feb 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 005/005-012/012-018/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/40/45
Minor storm 01/30/35
Major-severe storm 01/10/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/45/45
Minor storm 05/35/40
Major-severe storm 01/10/15
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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