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OK0NAG > SOLAR 12.02.10 23:07l 241 Lines 7366 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 12 Feb 2010 22:05:14 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity ranged from low to high. At 12/0726Z,
Region 1046 (N24E13) produced an impulsive C7.9/1n flare with an
associated 140 sfu Tenflare. Four hours later, the region produced
the largest event of the period, an impulsive M8.3/1n flare with an
associated 350 sfu Tenflare. LASCO C2 and Stereo-B imagery depicted
a potentially geoeffective, asymmetrical, full-halo CME from this
event. Later in the period, Region 1045 (N28W53) produced a M1.1/2f
at 12/1808Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with M-class flares likely. A chance of high activity
exists for the next 3 days (13-15 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a brief period of
unsettled conditions from 12/03-09Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (13 February), returning
to quiet on day 2 (14 February), and unsettled to active with a
chance for minor storming on day 3 (15 February). The activity
forecasted is due to CME and expected coronal hole high speed stream
effects.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 096
Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 098/098/098
90 Day Mean 12 Feb 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 008/010-005/007-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/40
Minor storm 10/05/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/15/45
Minor storm 10/05/35
Major-severe storm 01/01/10
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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