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OK0NAG > SOLAR 11.02.10 23:06l 217 Lines 6633 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 11 Feb 2010 22:04:04 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1045 (N22W52) is
beginning to show signs of decay. Region 1046 (N23E15) intensified
during the period, producing a C1.1/sf flare at 11/1941Z, the
largest event of the period. A well defined, recurrent, southern
extension coronal hole is nearing 20E.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
However, there is a chance for an isolated M-class event during the
period (12-14 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a single period of
unsettled conditions observed between 06-09Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled on day 1 (12 February). A decrease to quiet
with a slight chance for unsettled conditions on days 2 and 3 (13-14
February) is expected.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 094
Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 094/095/095
90 Day Mean 11 Feb 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/35/35
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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