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OK0NAG > SOLAR    17.01.10 00:02l 219 Lines 6682 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 16 Jan 2010 22:00:55 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Jan 16 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z

to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past

24 hours. Region 1040 (N29W57) has decayed, both in areal coverage

and spot number, but retained its beta magnetic configuration.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain

at very low to low levels. B-class flares and isolated C-class

flares are expected. There is also a slight chance for an isolated

M-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to remain at quiet levels for day one (17 January). On day

two (18 January), quiet to unsettled levels are expected due the

arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream. On day three (19

January), quiet levels are expected to return as the effects

subside.

III.  Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           16 Jan 084

Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan  084/082/082

90 Day Mean        16 Jan 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  002/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  002/003

Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  005/005-007/007-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/10/05

Minor storm           01/05/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                05/20/05

Minor storm           01/10/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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