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OK0NAG > SOLAR    12.01.10 23:03l 213 Lines 6503 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 12 Jan 2010 22:02:54 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Jan 12 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z

to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1040 (N28W04) produced

a C1.1 flare at 1320Z along with numerous B-class flares.  Region

1040 showed little change in areal coverage (300 millionths) and was

classified as an Eao-beta group with 25 spots.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low to low.  There is a slight chance Region 1040 could produce an

isolated M-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be mostly quiet with a slight chance for isolated

unsettled periods on day one (13 January) due to the presence of a

coronal hole high speed stream.  Quiet conditions are expected for

days two and three (14-15 January).

III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan

Class M    15/15/15

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           12 Jan 093

Predicted   13 Jan-15 Jan 093/093/090

90 Day Mean        12 Jan 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  004/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan  003/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/05/05

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                05/05/05

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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