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OK0NAG > SOLAR 22.12.09 23:07l 247 Lines 7617 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 22 Dec 2009 22:03:35 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Dec 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1036 (S27W58) produced a
C7/Sf flare at 22/0456Z associated with a Type II radio sweep
(estimated velocity 531 km/sec) and discrete frequency radio bursts,
the largest of which was 4900 sfu at 245 MHz. There was also a
faint, slow-moving partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME)
associated with the flare (estimated velocity 300 km/sec). Region
1036 gradually decayed from a D-type to a B-type spot group during
the period. Additional isolated low-level C-class flares and
occasional B-class flares also occurred during the period. Region
1035 (N31W98) crossed the west limb early in the period. No new
regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 2 (23 - 24 December) with a slight chance for an
isolated M-class flare. Activity is expected to drop to very low
levels on day 3 (25 December) as Region 1036 departs the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (23 - 25
December). The CME mentioned above is not expected to significantly
disturb the field.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M 10/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 082
Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 078/076/074
90 Day Mean 22 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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