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OK0NAG > SOLAR    03.11.09 23:04l 205 Lines 6189 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 3 Nov 2009 22:01:29 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2009 Nov 03 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2009

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z

to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. The SOHO/LASCO  imagery

observed a slow coronal mass ejection (CME) off the southwest limb

at 0501 UTC on 31 October.  The CME appears to be earth directed

with a plane-of sky speed of 380 km/s.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:

Geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet on day 1 (4 November).  Unsettled conditions

are expected on day 2 (5 November) due to possible effects from the

CME observed on 31 October.  Quiet levels are expected to return on

day 3 (6 November).

III.  Event Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           03 Nov 072

Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov  070/070/070

90 Day Mean        03 Nov 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  002/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov  005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  005/005-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/15/05

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                05/30/10

Minor storm           01/20/01

Major-severe storm    01/05/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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