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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Fri, 14 Dec 2007 22:02:18 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2007 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 978 (S09W40)
produced several low-level C-class x-ray flares during the past
twenty-four hours. The region has decayed in white light area, and
is now in a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low to low levels. Region 978 has the potential of further
C-class activity, and a slight chance of an isolated low-level
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels for the forecast
period (15 to 17 December). On 15 December expect conditions to
continue at quiet levels. 16 December should see a slight increase
in activity to include unsettled conditions. A recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to impact the geomagnetic field
on 17 December. Active to minor storm periods at middle latitudes,
and major storm conditions at high latitudes, are expected with this
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 092
Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 090/090/085
90 Day Mean 14 Dec 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 005/005-008/010-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/30
Minor storm 05/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/40
Minor storm 05/15/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/15
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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