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OK0NAG > SOLAR    21.10.09 23:08l 196 Lines 5956 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2009 Oct 21 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2009

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z

to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.

Region 1028 (N26E38) has decayed to spotless plage.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is

expected to be quiet on days one and two (22 - 23 October). Quiet to

unsettled levels are expected on day three (24 October) in response

to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III.  Event Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           21 Oct 071

Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct  072/072/072

90 Day Mean        21 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  000/001

Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct  005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  005/005-005/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/05/15

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                05/05/20

Minor storm           01/01/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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