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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2008 22:01:47 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. An
isolated active period was observed from 18/0900 - 1200Z due to
sustained southward Bz (-5nT maximum) and elevated solar wind speed.
Beginning at approximately 18/0600Z wind speed began a gradual rise
from around 450 km/s to end the summary period at about 600 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the forecast period
(19 - 21 February).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 071
Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 18 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 008/008-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/10
Minor storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/05
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