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OK0NAG > SOLAR 14.02.08 00:31l 74 Lines 2958 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2008 22:01:46 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Feb 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels, due to continued
effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at
the ACE spacecraft reached a maximum of approximately 690 km/s at
13/1110Z. By the end of the summary period wind speed had declined
to around 620 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached
high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly unsettled levels, with possible isolated
active conditions on all three days (14 - 16 February), due to
continued influence from the coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 071
Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 13 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 006/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 010/012-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/35/35
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
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