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Date: Mon, 17 Aug 2009 22:02:01 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk remained void of spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (18
August) as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS)
begins to disturb the field. A further increase to unsettled to
active levels, with a slight chance for minor storm levels, is
expected on day 2 (19 August) as the CH HSS persists. Activity is
expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 (20
August) as the CH HSS subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 068
Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 17 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 000/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 007/007-015/015-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/25
Minor storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/40/30
Minor storm 01/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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