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Thread-topic: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Date: Fri, 7 Aug 2009 22:02:37 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind
observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated the continued
presence of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Velocities
varied between 450 km/s and 500 km/s during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (08 August). For days two and three
(09-10 August), quiet to unsettled conditions with a slight chance
for isolated active periods are expected as the next recurrent
coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 068
Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 07 Aug 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 008/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 005/005-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/30/30
Minor storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
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