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OK0NAG > SOLAR 11.04.09 23:08l 78 Lines 3208 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Sat, 11 Apr 2009 22:01:57 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Apr 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The solar disk continues to be void of sunspots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled, with an
isolated active period from 0000-0300Z. Solar wind velocity remained
elevated during the past 24 hours, ranging between 500-560 km/s. The
solar wind signatures are consistent with the continuation of a high
speed stream from a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with a chance for unsettled levels and a
slight chance for an isolated active period on the first day (12
April) due to the continued presence of elevated solar wind
velocities. Activity levels are expected to be quiet for the second
and third days (13-14 April).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 069
Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 11 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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