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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.03.09 00:06l 78 Lines 3213 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Sat, 28 Feb 2009 22:02:31 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Feb 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low with no flares observed.
The visible solar disk was spotless. A slow moving, asymmetric CME
was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NW limb at
27/1931Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels. Solar winds speeds
decayed steadily throughout the summary period from a high of near
700 km/s to a low of about 500 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF
remained mostly north (+2 to +4 nT) for a majority of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for days one and two of the forecast period (01
- 02 March). By day three (03 March), activity levels are expected
to increase to quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods
possible at high latitudes. This increase in activity is due to a
coronal hole high speed stream that is expected to rotate into a
geoeffective position. The CME mentioned earlier is not expected to
be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 071
Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 28 Feb 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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