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OK0NAG > SOLAR 19.02.09 23:06l 76 Lines 2995 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Thu, 19 Feb 2009 22:02:30 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Feb 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
and the visible disk remains spotless. A weak, slow moving CME was
first observed in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NW limb at
19/0154Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels early in the summary
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one of the forecast period (20
February). By days two and three (21 - 22 February), predominately
quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast as a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective
position. The CME mentioned earlier is not expected to be
geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 069
Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 19 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 005/008-012/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/15
Minor storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/30/20
Minor storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
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