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OK0NAG > SOLAR 15.02.09 00:06l 74 Lines 3033 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Thread-topic: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Date: Sat, 14 Feb 2009 22:02:29 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The visible solar disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions.
An increase in temperature, speed, and density were observed in ACE
solar wind measurements around 14/0300Z indicating a co-interaction
rotating region (CIR) in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream. Interplanetary Bz fluctuated between +13 to -14 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with isolated periods of active conditions
for 15 February. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 16
February. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected for 17
February as the coronal hole high speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 070
Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 14 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 012/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 015/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/05
Minor storm 15/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/25/10
Minor storm 15/15/01
Major-severe storm 10/10/01
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