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OK0NAG > SOLAR 13.02.09 23:06l 71 Lines 2735 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Fri, 13 Feb 2009 22:02:25 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Feb 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1012 (S06E34)
produced a B2 event at 13/0535Z. This event had an associated CME
which was observed in the STEREO imagery (Ahead and Behind). The
region remains a simple alpha sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with isolated active periods for the next
three days (14-16 February) due to a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 070
Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 13 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 010/010-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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