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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Wed, 31 Dec 2008 22:01:33 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Dec 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 366 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. ACE
solar wind measurements indicated a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream began early in the summary period. Velocities
gradually increased from 305 to 559 km/sec during the period. IMF
changes associated with the transition to the high-speed stream
included increased Bt (peak 17 nT at 31/0000Z) and intermittent
periods of southward Bz (minimum -16 nT at 31/0131Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to range from quiet to active levels during days 1 - 2
(January 1 - 2) as the coronal hole high-speed stream continues.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day
3 (3 January) as the high-speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 069
Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 31 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 012/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 008/008-012/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/30/20
Minor storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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