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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Mon, 10 Dec 2007 22:02:29 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2007 Dec 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 978 (S08E14) grew
in complexity over the past day and is currently a beta-gamma
magnetic type.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to range
from very low to low. The trend in Region 978 suggest a good chance
for C-class activity..
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speeds at
ACE began to increase, approaching 440 km/s by 1800Z. Temperature
and density trends also signal the approach of a coronal hole high
speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled early in the period as the recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. Occasional
active periods may occur, particularly at high latitudes.
Extrapolation from STEREO Behind suggests a peak speed near 600 km/s
by 11 November at 1000Z. The disturbed conditions are exptected to
diminish by 13 December.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 087
Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 085/085/080
90 Day Mean 10 Dec 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 008/012-008/010-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 06/06/06
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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