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Date: Thu, 6 Nov 2008 22:02:07 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Nov 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1007 (N35W84) was
stable as it approached the west limb. No new active regions were
numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high during most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to range from active to minor storm levels with a chance
for major storm levels at high latitudes on day 1 (07 November) due
to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected
to decrease to unsettled to active levels on day 2 (08 November). A
further decrease to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 3
(09 November) as coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 069
Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 069/070/070
90 Day Mean 06 Nov 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 001/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 020/030-010/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 50/30/10
Minor storm 35/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/35/15
Minor storm 50/15/05
Major-severe storm 20/05/01
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