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Date: Tue, 28 Oct 2008 22:02:07 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Oct 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels during the period. ACE
solar wind measurements indicated the onset of a recurrent coronal
hole high-speed wind stream. Solar wind velocities gradually
increased from 300 - 490 km/sec during the period. IMF Bt also
increased and reached a peak of 14 nT late in the period. IMF Bz was
mostly northward and ranged from +09 to -08 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels during days 1 - 2 (29 -
30 October) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed solar wind
stream. There will also be a chance for minor storm levels on 30
October. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to decrease to
unsettled levels on day 3 (31 October) as coronal hole effects
subside.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 067
Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 067/067/068
90 Day Mean 28 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 010/012-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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