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VA2OM > SOLAR 16.02.90 11:30l 98 Lines 4526 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 61264_VE2PKT
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE<GB7YEW<W9GM<N9PMO<VE2HOM<VA2RIZ<VE2PKT
Sent: 260216/1012Z 61264@VE2PKT..#TRV.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2026 Feb 16 0314 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 - 15 February 2026
Solar activity reached moderate levels on 09, 11, 12, and 13 Feb and
was at low levels on 10, 14, and 15 Feb. Region 4366 (N14, L=203,
class/area Fkc/950 on 09 Feb) continued to be the most prolific spot
group, producing five out of the six M-class flares during the
period. The largest flare was an M2.8 flare that occurred at 09/0227
UTC, followed by an M1.2 at 10/0009 UTC, an M1.1 at 11/0044 UTC, an
M1.4 at 11/1312 UTC, and finally an M1.4 at 12/0240 UTC. Region 4373
(N09, L=110, class/area Hax/140 on 10 Feb) was the only other region
to contribute to the M-flare activity, adding an M1.0/Sf flare at
13/0858 UTC. There were 35 C-class flares, with the largest being a
C9.2/Sf at 09/2302 UTC from Region 4374.
CME activity included a large filament (located near N15W25) that
lifted off and disappeared from GONG H-alpha imagery at around
10/1910Z. Initial coronagraph imagery from LASCO C2 at 10/1948Z
revealed the eruption likely coincided with a separate eruption from
S22W80 (first visible in C2 at 10/1924Z). This event is thought to
have passed near Earth late on 14 Feb, slightly enhancing the
geomagnetic field. Additionally, a CME associated with the M1.0 on
13 Feb first became visible off the NW in LASCO C2 at 13/0924Z and
first visible in STEREO COR2 imagery at 13/0938Z. This event likely
arrived at Earth on 15 Feb, possibly embedded in the CH HSS.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit on 09-15 Feb.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels on 09, 10, 12, and 13 Feb, reaching a peak flux value of
1,764 pfu at 09/1500 UTC. Flux levels were at moderate levels on 11,
14, and 15 Feb.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 09
and 12 Feb, reached active levels on 10, 11, 13, and 14 Feb, and
reached minor storm levels on 15 Feb. The elevated levels starting
on 09 Feb and lasting through 14 Feb were likely associated with
negative polarity coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS)
influences combined with intermittent transient effects. The
increase in activity on 15 Feb is thought to be the result of a
co-rotating interaction region ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS,
possibly mixed with glancing effects from the CME that left the Sun
on 13 Feb.
<span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Arial,
sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span>
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 February - 14 March 2026
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with a slight
chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 16-21 Feb.
Activity is expected to increase to moderate levels with M-class
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares expected and a chance for X-class
(R3-Strong or greater) on 22 Feb through 07 Mar as Region 4366
returns to the visible disk. Activity should then decrease to low
levels, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on
08-09 Mar as Region 4366 transits the western limb. Low levels, with
a chance for M-class flares, are expected to return on 10-14 Mar as
old Region 4366 rotates to the far side once again.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux levels are likely to be below
the S1 (Minor) level on 16-21 Feb and again on 08-14 Mar. There is a
chance for the 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate)
storm levels from 22 Feb-07 Mar as old Region 4366 returns to the
visible disk.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 16 Feb through 03 Mar, 06-08 Mar,
and 11-12 Mar as CH HSS influence sporadically continues. Moderate
levels are likely on 04-05, 09-10, and 13-14 Mar, outside of CH HSS
influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 16-21 Feb, 24-25 Feb, 05-07 Mar, and 10 Mar due to
recurrent negative polarity CH HSS effects. Active conditions are
likely on 12 Mar following a solar sector boundary crossing, then
again on 14 Mar with the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.
Barring the potential for CME activity, mostly quiet to unsettled
levels are expected from 19-23 Feb, 26 Feb - 04 Mar, and 08, 09, 11,
and 13 Mar.
73 de VA2OM, SYSOP of VE2PKT
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