| |
VA2OM > SOLAR 09.02.90 11:25l 102 Lines 5231 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 60409_VE2PKT
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<F1OYP<JH4XSY<N3HYM<WW4BSA<VE3CGR<VA3BAL<VE2PKT
Sent: 260209/1017Z 60409@VE2PKT..#TRV.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2026 Feb 09 0534 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 - 08 February 2026
Solar activity reached high levels on 02-04 Feb, moderate levels on
05 and 08 Feb, and low levels on 06-07 Feb. The flare activity was
dominated by Region 4366 (N14, L=204, class/area Fkc/1100 on 03
Feb). This region produced 31 C-class flares, 38 M-class
(R1/R2-Minor/Moderate), and four X-class (R3-Strong) flares. The
X-class flares included: an X2.8 at 02/0036 UTC, an X1.6 at 02/0814
UTC, an X1.5 at 03/1408 UTC, and an X4.2 at 04/1213 UTC. Region 4366
also added four M-class flares that were greater than the M5 level.
These included: an M5.2 at 02/0251 UTC, an M6.7 at 02/1124 UTC, an
M7.2/1n at 03/0701 UTC, and an M7.2 at 03/1456 UTC. The remaining 34
M-class flares produced by Region 4366 were at the R1/R2 levels,
ranging from M1.1 to M4.9. Surprisingly, very few radio emissions
were observed in association with the increased flare activity.
There were only three F10.7 cm radio bursts recorded during the
week. The first was a burst of 140 sfu associated with the X1.5
flare at 03/1408 UTC, second was a 110 sfu burst that accompanied
the M2.2 flare at 05/1934 UTC, and last, a 440 sfu burst that
coincided with the M2.7 flare at 08/1353 UTC. The only other radio
signature of note was a Type II radio sweep that was detected by
USAF observatories starting at about 02/0000 UTC, with an estimated
velocity of 955 km/s. No other radio signatures were noted. Other
activity included a large, slow moving filament eruption centered
near N18W30 that began at 03/0400 UTC as seen in SUVI 304 imagery.
An associated CME was observed off the NW limb at 03/1836 UTC. There
was another narrow eruption noted off the NE, first visible in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 04/1426 UTC. This event was likely a
sympathetic eruption triggered by the X4.2, starting at
approximately 04/1350 UTC near N15W22 between Regions 4366 and 4367
(N09, L=174, class/area Cao/50 on 03 Feb). There is a slight
potential of minor glancing blows from these eruptions early on 09
Feb. A coronal mass ejection was observed off the south/southwest
limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 05/1548 UTC. The source is likely
associated with an M1.8/1N flare from Region 4362 (S17, L=207,
class/area Dao/50 on 07 Feb) that peaked at 05/1513 UTC. Surface
signatures in SUVI 284 imagery showed a faint southerly deflected
EUV wave. Model output suggests a glancing effect late on 08 Feb to
early on 09 Feb.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit on 02-08 Feb.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 02, 03, 04, and 08 Feb, with a peak flux value of
13,970 pfu at 04/1605 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 05 Feb
following the arrival of a CME from an X8.1 flare that originated
from Region 4366 at 01/2357 UTC. Conditions were at quiet to
unsettled levels on 02-03 Feb and for the first half of 04 Feb
before increasing to active levels following the onset of a negative
polarity coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS). Quiet to active
conditions were observed on 06-07 Feb with combined influence from a
negative polarity CH HSS and a possible passing transient. Quiet to
unsettled levels returned by 08 Feb as -CH HSS effects lingered.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 February - 07 March 2026
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate levels with
further M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares expected and a chance
for X-class (R3-Strong or greater) on 09-10 Feb as Region 4366
transits the western limb. Low levels, with a chance for M-class
flares, are expected on 11-22 Feb. An increase to moderate to high
levels is once again likely on 23-28 Feb as Region 4366 returns to
the visible disk. Conditions should again return to low to moderate
levels on 01-07 Mar as old Region 4366 rotates to the far side once
again.
There is a chance for the 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1-S2
(Minor-Moderate) storm levels through 12 Feb as Region 4366 transits
the visible disk and beyond. Levels are likely to be below the S1
(Minor) level on 12-22 Feb. An increase to above the S1 (Minor)
storm levels 23-28 Feb is possible as Region 4366 returns to the
visible disk. Chances decrease on 01-07 Mar as old Region 4366
rotates to the far side once again.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 09-10 Feb, 16-21 Feb, 24-25 Feb,
and 05-07 Mar as CH HSS influence sporadically continue.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 09-10 Feb as CH HSS influence decreases. Barring the
potential for CME activity, mostly quiet to unsettled levels are
expected from 11-15 Feb, 22-23 Feb, and 26 Feb - 04 Mar. Unsettled
to active levels are likely on 16-21 Feb, 24-25 Feb, and 05-07 Mar
due to recurrent negative polarity CH HSS effects.
73 de VA2OM, SYSOP of VE2PKT
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
