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VA2OM > SOLAR 02.02.90 11:25l 85 Lines 3952 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 59625_VE2PKT
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<F1OYP<F1OYP<N2MH4<N3HYM<VE3CGR<VA3BAL<VE2PKT
Sent: 260202/1011Z 59625@VE2PKT..#TRV.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2026 Feb 02 0937 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 January - 01 February 2026
Solar activity ranged from low levels to very high levels. On 26-30
Jan, mostly low level C-class flaring was observed with the majority
of the flares occurring from Regions 4351 (S04, L=004, class/area
Dai/080 on 24 Jan), 4353 (N18, L=359, class/area Dai/110 on 25 Jan).
The largest flare during this timeframe was a C8.8 at 26/1339 UTC
from Region 4355 (S12, L=299, class/area Cao/020 on 25 Jan). On 30
Jan, a new region emerged in the NE quadrant and was numbered 4366
(N14, L=202, class/area Ekc/550 on 01 Feb). This region quickly grew
into a large, compact, and magnetically complex region over 31
Jan-01 Feb. Multiple delta magnetic configurations evolved as the
region grew. Consequently, there were 17 M-class flares and 2
X-class flares observed on 01 Feb. The largest was an X8.1 flare at
01/2357 UTC. Associated with X8.1 flare was observed three CMEs that
appeared in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 02/0048-0300 UTC
which was also evident in GOES/SUVI 304 imagery. Modelling was
currently underway at the timing of this report.
A greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement near 1 pfu (below S1-Minor)
was still in progress from the event that began on 18 Jan, but
declined to near background levels by 28 Jan.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 26 Jan-01 Feb with a peak flux of 13,200 pfu observed
at 27/1650 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) levels
over the period. The period began under positive polarity CH HSS
conditions with solar wind speed averaging around 500 km/s with
total field around 5-8 nT. Solar wind conditions returned to nominal
levels by early on 27 Jan. A solar sector boundary crossing from
positive to negative occurred around 27/1500 UTC followed by an
increase in total field to 13 nT and solar wind speed increase to
around 670 km/s on 28-29 Jan as a negative polarity CH HSS became
geoeffective. Solar wind speeds gradually subsided to nominal levels
by 01 Feb. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled
levels on 26-27 Jan, unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming on 28 Jan,
quiet to active levels on 29-30 Jan, and quiet conditions on 31 Jan
- 01 Feb.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 February - 28 February 2026
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels
with further M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares expected and a
high chance for X-class (R3-Strong or greater) on 02-10 Feb as
Region 4366 transits across the visible disk. Low levels with a
chance for M-class flares are expected on 11-22 Feb. An increase to
moderate to high levels is once again likely on 23-28 Feb as Region
4366 returns to the visible disk.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is likely to reach S1-S2
(Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 02-04 Feb due to proton prediction
model guidance from the recent X8.1 flare. A chance for further
proton enhancements exist through 12 Feb as Region 4366 transits the
visible disk and beyond.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 02-03 Feb, 06-12 Feb, and 15-28 Feb
due to recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels
on 02-05 Feb barring the potential for CME activity related to the
X8.1 flare. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected from 05-11 Feb,
22-23 Feb, and 26 Feb. Unsettled to active levels are expected on
13-21 Feb, and 24-25 Feb, with G1 (Minor) levels likely on 13 Feb
due to recurrent CH HSS effects.
73 de VA2OM, SYSOP of VE2PKT
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