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LU9DCE > SOLAR 14.03.20 06:07l 73 Lines 2887 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11367_LU9DCE
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Subj: SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 14 03
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0PBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200314/0400Z 11367@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 13/2038Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 13/0247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
13/0722Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 129 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16
Mar).
III. Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 069
Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 13 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
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By one count there are some 700 scientists with respectable academic
credentials (out of a total of 480,000 U.S. earth and life scientists)
who give credence to creation-science, the general theory that complex life
forms did not evolve but appeared "abruptly."
-- Newsweek, June 29, 1987, pg. 23
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