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LU9DCE > SOLAR 02.03.20 06:16l 70 Lines 2769 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10622_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 02 03
Path: IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200302/0400Z 10622@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
GNU / LINUX - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 Mar 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 29/2314Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 29/2236Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/2159Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 342 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 069
Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 01 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Feb 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 010/012-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/25/20
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A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining and
wants it back the minute it begins to rain.
-- Mark Twain
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