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LU9DCE > SOLAR 21.02.20 06:16l 69 Lines 2670 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9828_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 21 02
Path: IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IQ5KG<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 200221/0401Z 9828@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
GNU / LINUX - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 456 km/s at 19/2108Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 20/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
20/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2786 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23
Feb).
III. Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 071
Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 20 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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Patch griefs with proverbs.
-- William Shakespeare, "Much Ado About Nothing"
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