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W7EES  > SWPC     26.01.20 20:30l 46 Lines 1865 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 13828_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK6IHL<IK7NXU<HB9ON<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 200124/2340Z 13828@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.19


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 346 km/s at 23/2138Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 175 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jan 071
Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15

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