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LU9DCE > SOLAR 13.01.20 06:30l 68 Lines 2754 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7312_LU9DCE
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Subj: SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 13 01
Path: IZ3LSV<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<KF5JRV<VA7RBP<VE7MOV<LU9DCE
Sent: 200113/0400Z 7312@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 Jan 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 450 km/s at 12/0128Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
12/0201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
12/0135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 979 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Jan) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 072
Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 071/070/070
90 Day Mean 12 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 008/008-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/30/30
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Just remember: when you go to court, you are trusting your fate to twelve
people that weren't smart enough to get out of jury duty!
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