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LU9DCE > SOLAR 11.01.20 21:08l 74 Lines 2836 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7257_LU9DCE
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Subj: SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 11 01
Path: IZ3LSV<IK6IHL<IK7NXU<HB9CSR<IR2UBX<DB0RES<ON0AR<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200111/1907Z 7257@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LINUX - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 Jan 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 09/0448Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 10/1313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/0923Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 617 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Jan, 12 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (13 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 073
Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 073/072/072
90 Day Mean 10 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 006/008-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25
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And as we stand on the edge of darkness Let our chant fill the void That
others may know
In the land of the night The ship of the sun Is drawn by The
grateful dead.
-- Tibetan "Book of the Dead," ca. 4000 BC.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
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