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W7EES > SWPC 10.01.20 00:45l 48 Lines 2012 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 13410_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<N9LCF<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 200109/2238Z 13410@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 1182 km/s at 09/0742Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 09/0324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
09/0501Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 273 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 074
Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 09 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 007/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 25/10/10
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