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W7EES  > SWPC     04.01.20 02:47l 48 Lines 1893 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 13304_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0PBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<KF5JRV<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 200103/2356Z 13304@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 03/2014Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 03/0651Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
03/0650Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jan 071
Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        03 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10

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