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W7EES > SWPC 27.12.19 03:52l 48 Lines 1979 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 13138_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<KF5JRV<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 191227/0120Z 13138@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 26/1438Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 26/0147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
25/2319Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 310 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29
Dec).
III. Event probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec 072
Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 072/071/071
90 Day Mean 26 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 005/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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