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W7EES > SWPC 25.12.19 15:24l 49 Lines 2001 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 13117_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<CX2SA<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 191225/1221Z 13117@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2343Z on 24 Dec 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 365 km/s at 24/0017Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
24/0907Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
24/0947Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 242 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25-26 Dec) and
at quiet levels on day three (27 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 073
Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 24 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 006/005-009/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/25/25
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