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W7EES > SWPC 05.08.19 02:05l 49 Lines 1965 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10543_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190804/2257Z 10543@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug, 07 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 372 km/s at 04/0807Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
04/1339Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
04/0746Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Aug), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (06 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (07 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 067
Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 04 Aug 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 018/025-020/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/55/35
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